Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Energy Policy

Surely no one doubts we will run out of oil. Any plans to drill for more, to conserve it, to cajole, or conquer our way to more supply are only stop gap measures. How can we extend the oil supply we have? What should we be doing now to ensure a supply of energy when the oil supply makes it too precious for fueling cars and electric generators? You have come to the place you know and trust for straight answers about this, and other questions of galactic importance.

An overview of US energy consumption shows of course oil is the big one, about 40% of total. Natural gas and coal account for equal shares of 23% and renewable is 7%, the same as nuclear.

I believe we will need government interference in the market to jump start the change to the new energy paradigm. Here is my program:

Start alternative energy development incentives and research that is funded to the levels of the space program, funded by terminating existing subsidies to everyone, and by raising the gasoline tax. Yes, raise it. More expensive gas will help drive the market along to newer energy sources, that are likely to cost more than oil has traditionally. The secondary benefit is that the money spent on this program will be spent here in our local national economy. Set specific benchmarks over time- raising alt energy as a percent of total consumption at a 2% per year increase until it is 25% of total. Oh, and while we are at it, any reference to "Cap and Trade" ideas will be prima face evidence of mental incompetence and grounds for summary dismissal from public life.

Oil! Getting over oil will take years and we will need to continue to rely on it to some degree for many, many years. See my post about Misunderstood Oil. This is the near term solution we can access today, realistically and economically. No, I am not joking. If you think taking a trip at today's gas prices is costly, wait till you are paying the full bill for Hydrogen cars! The only reason electric and hydrogen cars makes sense is that gasoline costs as much as it does. Oh and for the ninnies who whine: "Well that oil won't be available for at least 10 years anyway!" I say shut up. Having the US aggressively exploring and drilling will impact the futures market immediately, by the mere fact that the energy demand of the US economy will be met within 10 years from new fields. Think of how much less those long term futures will be worth as soon as the change in policy is announced. And don't misunderestimate the American oil companies- with a clear path to more profitable oil they will get the oil into the new refineries in half the time the "experts" believe they can.

Diesel Power! Change the air pollution standards and other barriers to increasing diesel usage in the US, and encourage through CAFE standards the adoption of small diesel engines for cars to equal the percentage of diesels in Europe. No one can seriously believe their different emission standards are less stringent than ours. (On a side note, we REALLY don't know what polutants are the worst kind. CO2? If so, lets stop politicians from speaking to reduce their exhaled noxious gasses.) But back to cool diesels- encourage their development, building and sales as a 10 year stop gap. Do this to give proven, near term economically feasible alternatives to the hybrid cars that are still too costly. (eco greenies will shit)

Bio Fuel: Use the corn planned to go to ethanol into corn oil production to fuel the little diesels. Import ethanol from Brazil, at a lower cost than we can make it here. In the meantime encourage sugar beet production to make a domestic ethanol industry more cost effective than that derived from corn. (farmers lobbyists will shit)

Atomic power? Read this article that delves into Nuclear power since Three Mile Island... Break down barriers to nuclear energy- get Yucca Mt. going, start recycling uranium into plutonium, and build new style power plants, set a specific goal of offsetting oil and gas powered electricity generation- say a 50% percent reduction. (eco greenies will shit)

The result of all these policies are that the governments that control most of the world's oil, and hate us (OPEC and Hugo Chavez), will shit, we will have greatly reduced national security interests in the Arab world, and we can get the hell out of there. No one will shit about this! Al Queda and the rest will lose the stated reason they hate us, our presence and influence there. The rest of the world will then have to face the issues of radical Islam without our men doing their fighting for them. (Europe will shit)

All in all, a good policy on energy does what we all want to see, piss off Europe and OPEC, at the same time. In the end, sincere Eco Greenies should be happy to have their lower intestines cleaned out, and oil consumption reduced, but that is not their goal. We will be using wind, ocean, geothermal, solar, hydrogen, hydro, nuclear forms of energy, along with things we don't even understand yet. Humans adapt.


4 comments:

juandos said...

"Surely no one doubts we will run out of oil. Any plans to drill for more, to conserve it, to cajole, or conquer our way to more supply are only stop gap measures"...

Well I most assuredly doubt it...

"abiotic oil", google it...

CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT RECENT PREDICTIONS OF IMPENDING SHORTAGES OF PETROLEUM EVALUATED FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF MODERN PETROLEUM SCIENCE

Paul Banbury said...

Jaundos, thanks for the link, and yes, there seems to be growing evidence that there is more oil than we currently think. OK, point ceded. Like all energy sources, the cost of recovery/development is going to be higher than in the recent past. Economic calculations also show that the "high" costs of oil are not as high in real terms as we are thinking. So there we are, the future for oil is better than the eco-terrorists want to allow, and we are being held hostage by them in our government, academia and the media. On this topic, these are important groups who make policy. That the oil companies are playing along though is most disturbing, don't you think?

juandos said...

Hello paul:

Let me tackle that last question you posed which I agree with: "That the oil companies are playing along though is most disturbing, don't you think?"...

Well in one sense the energy companies are indeed lying (for want of a better word) to its consumers...

Then again look at it from the energy companies' collective view point...

IF the customers of of energy exhibit apparent beliefs in the junk science of global warming and peak oil then how should the energy companies reach these customers?

BTW in a free market doesn't the phrase, 'caveat emptor' still apply?

None the less the energy companies are making huge investments getting the oil this and every other country on the planet needs...

Pumped Up: Chevron Drills Down 30,000 Feet to Tap Oil-Rich Gulf of Mexico

Paul Banbury said...

Which brings me back to the premise of the economics of energy. When oil was below $12 per barrel, the oil business changed. Oil was no longer worth the capital investment it took to get it. Now, with the world yearning to pay $120 a barrel, many new fields and technologies to exploit them are feasible, as are some alternatives, because the cost of oil based products are the standard for all energy. The thing that's harder to calculate is the impact of the devaluation of the dollar on the equation.